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Western Forest Fires Capturing Headlines, But Not As Big As You Might Think

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Rim Fire at Yosemite National Park in 2013/USFS

While the Rim Fire that burned into Yosemite National Park in 2013 captured national attention, in historical terms it wasn't that big. And, a new analysis shows, recent wildfire trends are below historical trends/USFS

The Rough Fire is closing in on Grant Grove in Kings Canyon National Park, the Reynolds Creek Fire closed a portion of Glacier National Park's famous Going-to-the-Sun Road, and clouds of wood smoke from the Tenaya Fire have been a looming backdrop to Yosemite National Park's famous valley. And yet, recent fire history overall in the West has not matched historical trends in terms of fire frequency or severity, according to a new analysis. 

Dr. William Baker, Emeritus Professor in the Program in Ecology/Department of Geography at the University of Wyoming, compared recent fire records to historical records and found that severe fires from 1984-2012 burned at rates that were less frequent than historical rates in dry forests (low-elevation pine and dry mixed-conifer forests) of the Western United States overall, and fire severity did not increase during this period. To reach that conclusion, the professor compared records of recent severe fires across 63 million acres of dry forests, about 20 percent of total conifer forest area in the West, with data on severe fires before A.D. 1900 from multiple sources.

"Infrequent severe fires are major ecosystem renewal events that maintain biological diversity, provide essential habitat for wildlife, and diversify forest landscapes so they are more resilient to future disturbances," said Dr. Baker in a release. "Recent severe fires have not increased because of mismanagement of dry forests or unusual fuel buildup, since these fires overall are occurring at lower rates than they did before 1900. These data suggest that federal forest restoration and wildfire programs can be redirected to restore and manage severe fires at historical rates, rather than suppress them."

Key findings from the study:

* Rates of severe fires in dry forests from 1984-2012 were within the pre-1900 range, or were less frequent, overall across the Western United States and in 42 of 43 smaller analysis regions;

* It would take more than 875 years, at 1984-2012 rates, for severe fires to burn across all dry forests, which is longer than the range of 217-849 years across pre-1900 forests. These forests have ample time to regenerate after severe fires and reach old age before the next severe fire;

* Severe fires are not becoming more frequent in most areas, as a significant upward trend in area burned severely was found in only three of 23 dry pine analysis regions and one of 20 dry mixed-conifer regions in parts of the Southwest and Rocky Mountains from 1984-2012. Also, the fraction of total fire area that burned severely did not increase overall or in any region.

"Although not yet occurring in most areas, increases in severe fire projected by 2046-2065 could be absorbed in most regions without exceeding pre-1900 rates, but it would be wise to redirect housing and infrastructure into safer settings and reduce fuels near them," the release said.

The study appeared in the international science journal PLOS ONE last week.

An example that appears to buttress Dr. Baker's conclusions was the Rim Fire that burned into Yosemite in 2013. While it drew huge attention, nationally, in historical context it wasn't that large.

"As I’m looking at the statistics, it’s a sub-par year for numbers of fires and acres burned. Over the last decade, I think it’s the lowest number of fires and second-lowest for burned area," Dr. Stephen Pyne,  an Arizona State University professor who specializes in both enviromental history as well as the history of wildfires, told the Traveler in 2013. “That may change, the season is still going, (but) it hasn’t been an off-the-scale year. What it has is it’s hitting all the sweet spots for media and public interest."

For his study, Dr. Baker calculated pre-1900 rates of severe fires from land-survey records across 4 million acres of dry forests in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Oregon, and analysis of government Forest Inventory and Analysis records and early aerial photography. These reconstructions are corroborated by paleo-charcoal records at seven sites in Arizona, Idaho, New Mexico, and Oregon, he said.

Dr. Baker is the author of more than 120 peer-reviewed scientific publications, and also contributed to the new book, The Ecological Importance of Mixed-Severity Fires: Nature's Phoenix, which features the work of 27 scientists from around the world.

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