Scientists Use Mauna Loa Data To Achieve More Accurate Lava Flow Predictions

During a 13-day Mauna Loa eruption in 2022, the largest lava flow headed directly toward Daniel K. Inouye State Highway 200, a critical route that carries many residents from their homes on one side to their jobs on the other. While no one could accurately predict whether the lava would continue to flow or stop short of the road, new advances in satellite data and machine learning algorithms developed at the University of Pittsburg mean that scientists are now better equipped to monitor the next eruption and make more accurate predictions.

A recent publication in the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research explains the findings.  

During the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption in Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park, more data from privately launched satellites was becoming available to researchers. Professor Michael Ramsey at Pitt wondered if those new sources could be combined with traditional government satellites to make better predictions.

“He asked if I could map the lava flow in real time and actually see the flow-front advancing toward the only road that cuts across the island,” said Ian Flynn, a research assistant professor who was working with Ramsey at Pitt at the time.

Flynn was able to watch as the lava made its way toward the highway. “The concern was that lava was making a beeline toward the road,” Flynn said. “It stopped about 1.5 miles from the road.”

The best way to keep people safe in the event of an eruption, however, is to know as soon as possible before lava begins running down hillsides.

Researchers already knew that increased heat and seismic activity are indicators of an upcoming eruption, but how hot? How much activity? How early? 

Working with a colleague, Dr. Claudia Corradino from the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), the team was able to use a machine learning algorithm to identify a thermal increase one month before the start of the eruption. While this signal that an eruption was coming was identified after the eruption ended, any new insights into how a volcano behaves prior to erupting adds to scientists’ ability to predict when they’ll occur for the next eruption. 

“Every volcano has its own personality,” Flynn said. “Yes, it’s cheesy, but it’s the truth. They’re all different.”

Flynn began to focus on the thickness of the lava flow to achieve more accurate predictions. He reached out to Dr. Shashank Bhushan, a colleague working at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, who had done similar work with glaciers.

Bhushan and Flynn were able to adapt the methodology used on glaciers to lava flows, giving Flynn and collaborators another tool to understand the eruption.

“Getting visible data helped us understand where it’s going,” Flynn said, but that data is two dimensional. “Now we can also generate flow thickness and understand how much material is coming out.” That information is key to understanding if an eruption has just begun or if it’s waning. It can also be analyzed in terms of the thermal trends to understand how the lava is cooling over time.

“One, if it’s still hot, it’s still a hazard. You don’t want someone walking along something that’s still degassing dangerous chemicals,” he said.  And knowing when the lava cooled can help researchers more accurately analyze the lava’s composition.

As more data becomes available, Flynn and his colleagues continue to learn more about the Mauna Loa eruption and gain the kinds of information they’ll need to know about other volcanoes. Mauna Loa may be the most active volcano in the world, but others can be just as—if not more—threatening to people living nearby. Each has its own personality, and each may need its own, tailor-made monitoring system.