Hurricane Season Will Likely Deliver Fewer Storms To National Parks

This year's hurricane season, which kicks off June 1, will likely deliver fewer storms than usual, giving national parks across the East Coast, Florida, and the Caribbean a much-needed break. However, the change may not be all that noticeable.

Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service have said there’s a 55 percent chance of a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin. The agency is forecasting a total of eight to 14 named storms, and of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. 

“The two main factors driving this year’s forecast are the anticipated development of an El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean within the next 1-3 months and sea surface temperatures,” Emily Powell, the assistant state climatologist at the Florida Climate Center at FSU, told the Traveler. “There are good chances for a moderate to very strong El Niño developing by the time of peak hurricane season (August - October), which is largely driving forecasts for below-average activity this year.”

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures rise at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit above average across the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. These rising temperatures in the Pacific create stronger upper-level winds over the Atlantic. The resulting vertical wind shear can make it more difficult for hurricanes to form over the Atlantic Ocean.  

NOAA points out that El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.

Hurricanes that develop earlier in the season will likely put Florida parks at risk, according to Powell. “Above-average [sea surface temperatures] in the Atlantic basin may be a larger factor during the earlier part of the hurricane season this year. Early season storms more often form closer to land in the Gulf and Caribbean…This would put places like the Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve in South Florida at relatively higher risk.”

Because national parks in Florida have been dealing with long-term drought and increased wildfire activity that has resulted in a lot of dead or damaged vegetation, impacts from a tropical cyclone could be exacerbated, she explained.  

“Aside from hurricane impacts, an El Niño generally increases rainfall in Florida by as much as 40 percent during fall and even more during winter,” noted Powell. “Above-average rainfall is likely to end the extreme to exceptional drought Florida and much of the Southeast U.S. have been experiencing, but it may also lead to excess rainfall in the coming months. Regardless of how the hurricane season unfolds, park managers in Florida may be having to shift from managing one extreme to managing another.”

During a recent media briefing, hurricane experts also warned residents not to focus too narrowly on a storm’s forecast track, as dangerous impacts such as tornadoes, flooding and wind damage can occur far outside the center of a storm.

“Those impacts can go a long way inland,” said David Merrick, director of FSU’s Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program and the Center for Disaster Risk Policy. “They can go left and right of the cone.”

He emphasized that communities outside the projected path can still experience significant damage and disruptions. And as a hurricane develops, the forecast track can move, bringing the center of the storm to communities that only expected minor impacts.

For example, in 2024, Hurricane Helene caused the full or partial closure of a dozen East Coast parks.

For the second year, meteorologists are utilizing AI to assist in their predictions.

“It is doing surprisingly well despite the relatively small sample of tropical cyclones to work with,” Mark Bourassa, professor of meteorology in the department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Studies and associate director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at FSU, told the Traveler. “I'd be nervous about trusting it for a Super El Niño and other very unusual conditions, but it will be very interesting to see how the AI models do this year.” 

A Super El Niño is defined when temperature anomalies exceed 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. The most recent Super El Niño was during the winter of 2015-16. While it is possible that a Super El Niño will develop this year, it is not included in the official forecast from NOAA.

Researchers are also studying how drones, LiDAR imagery and AI analysis could help communities identify infrastructure weaknesses before storms strike. For example, researchers have used unmanned aerial vehicles equipped with optical, thermal, and LiDAR sensors to inspect bridges and road corridors, along with algorithms that automatically identify cracks and other defects that could worsen during storms. These technologies could potentially be used for national park infrastructure.

“I think we’re going to see a trend to begin to integrate that into risk assessment and mitigation planning on the front end,” said Dennis Smith, planner in residence in FSU’s Department of Urban and Regional Planning during a recent media briefing.