National Parks At Risk As High Wildfire Potential Expected This Summer

The National Interagency Fire Center is predicting higher than average wildland fire potential across much of the West, Southwest and parts of the Southeast in June and July, which could affect a number of national parks. So far this year, wildfires have already cropped up in national parks and wilderness areas in Florida and Montana, and with drought now affecting 56 percent of the United States, the outlook isn’t good.

A 2026 study found that many national parks are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, and parks in the West and Southwest are vulnerable to increased wildfire risk specifically.

The increased wildfires that have plagued the West and Southwest during the past several years affect more than just national park landscapes. “Wildfire smoke affects millions of people far from the fires themselves,” explained Philip Demokritou, a professor at Rutgers School of Public Health studying how wildfire smoke affects the body. “Smoke travels long distances and reaches densely populated areas, disrupting daily life and exposing new populations to harmful air.”

“A key concern is ultrafine particles,” said José Cedeño-Laurent, an assistant professor at Rutgers. “These are small enough to penetrate deep into the lungs and may enter the bloodstream. Wildfire smoke can also carry metals and toxic compounds, including some linked to cancer.”

NIFC noted in a recent report that fire activity increased across the U.S. in March, with notable increases observed in the Southern and Rocky Mountain Geographic Areas, and other, more modest, increases in the Southwest, California, Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and Eastern Areas. According to the report, “So far this year 16,746 wildfires have been reported, also well above average, at 168 percent.”

One area that may see an earlier wildfire season is the Great Basin, where “a much warmer and drier than normal winter and early spring has pushed fuels to record dry levels across the southern half of the Great Basin.” Record low snowpack in the area, combined with warm and dry conditions this spring mean that the fire season will likely start earlier and be more severe than previous years.  Wildfires in the Great Basin could affect Great Basin National Park, Death Valley National Park, and a number of national monuments.

The Southeast is another area of greater concern, as historically low streamflow, dry swamps, and increasingly burnable organic soils create higher wildfire risk. NIFC noted that “very cold temperatures into south Florida last winter also left an unusual amount of freeze-cured vegetation that may contribute to fire activity through summer.” Big Cypress National Park in Florida has already seen three wildfires this year. The National Fire, the biggest of the three, spread to over 35,000 acres.

“Exposure to wildfire smoke can worsen asthma, trigger breathing difficulties and increase emergency room visits,” explained Demokritou. “But the effects extend beyond the lungs. Emerging research links wildfire smoke to cardiovascular issues, impacts on the nervous system, mental health challenges and potential reproductive risks. Some evidence suggests that wildfire particles may be more harmful than other types of air pollution at similar levels.”