As of right now, it looks like a reprieve of sorts could be in the offing for units of the National Park System battered by hurricanes last year. Maybe.
The AccuWeather forecasting agency is predicting "a near normal to slightly above-normal year with between 12 to 15 tropical storms. Of those storms, six to eight are forecast to become hurricanes and three to five are forecast to become major hurricanes."
"Last year we had 17 tropical storms. This year may not be quite as active, but still probably normal to slightly above normal," AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
Of course, three of last year's hurricanes -- Irma and Maria which nailed the Caribbean and south Florida units of the park system, and Harvey, which pummeled some units in Texas -- delivered direct hits. So while there might not be as as many tropical storms this year, at the end of the day what really matters is the course they take.
According to AccuWeather, "sea surface temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal across most of the basin and normal to above normal over the main developmental region, where more than 85 percent of all tropical storms form."
"Right now, we are in a weakening La Niña pattern, but the climate pattern is expected to go into what's called a neutral pattern, which promotes near-normal wind shear," Mr. Kottlowski said. "The thing that's causing the balance to tip in one direction [this year] is that sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal."
The bottom line, according to AccuWeather, is that "(W)hile last year brought six impacts to the United States, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, this year is more likely to result in three or four."
"(B)ut I'm almost afraid to tell people this because it only takes one big storm to hit you to cause massive damage," said Mr. Kottlowski. "We saw that from Harvey, Irma and Maria last year. If all we had was just another Irma or Harvey, that would be more than enough to cause catastrophic damage for any coastal community."
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BREAKING (GOOD) NEWS
EPA head Scott Pruitt just resigned!
Maybe there's a shred of hope that the sensible people among us still have a small voice.