When will the peak bloom of cherry blossoms on the National Mall fall this spring?/NPS

Things still could change, but as of today the cherry blossoms on the National Mall are expected to reach their peak performance between March 18-23, according to the National Park Service.

Park Service staffers say the new projection is based on this week's "sustained, unseasonably warm temperatures."

"Although the National Park Service factored above-average March temperatures into the original prediction date, potentially record-setting temperatures, averaging nearly 20 degrees above normal for the next week, have greatly accelerated the bloom watch," the staff said Tuesday. "In response to the earlier peak bloom, the Tidal Basin Welcome Area, located near the paddle boats at Maine Avenue SW and Raoul Wallenberg Place SW, will now be open from March 18 – April 3 (it was previously scheduled from April 2-17).

Last year the peak bloom occurred on April 10, and in 2014 it also arrived on that date. 

The peak bloom date is defined as the day when 70% of the Yoshino Cherry (Prunus x yedoensis) blossoms are open. Peak bloom varies annually depending on weather conditions. The most likely time to reach peak bloom is between the last week of March and the first week of April. Extraordinary warm or cool temperatures have resulted in peak bloom as early as March 15 (1990) and as late as April 18 (1958).

The Yoshino trees typically bloom for a period of several days. The length of the blooming period depends on weather conditions. Cool, calm weather can extend the length of the bloom, and a rainy, windy day can bring an abrupt end to the ephemeral blossoms. A late frost can prevent the trees from blooming at all.

Forecasting peak bloom is almost impossible more than 10 days in advance. The cherry trees' blossom development is dependent on weather conditions, which are inherently variable. National Park Service horticulturists monitor bud development and report the status of the blossoms.

Additional information on the cherry blossoms, including the bloom watch countdown updated during the bloom period, a history of the cherry trees, and the full schedule of National Park Service cherry blossom events is available online.