A proposal to require reservations at peak times for visitors to Arches National Park could lead to a substantial economic impact to the area, according to an economist/NPS file
If Arches National Park moves forward with a plan to require advance reservations for visitors, it could lead to an initial economic hit of as much as $22 million to the Moab, Utah, area, according to an economic analysis. That dollar figure is far from firm, the economist cautioned, and could be greatly reduced as people get used to whatever traffic management plan the park settles on.
At the same time, however, such a reservation system "may enhance visitor experience and increase the economic value of trips to" the national park, noted Robert Paterson, who works for Industrial Economics, Incorporated, out of Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Arches is one of a handful of national parks -- others include Yellowstone, Zion, Yosemite, Acadia, Grand Canyon, Glacier -- that struggle at times during the year with overcrowding. Zion officials have been working on their own management plan for some time, and it, too, includes provisions for reservations, though they might not be included in the final proposal.
Overcrowding can lead to natural resource impacts. In Zion Canyon, for instance, where there are roughly 13 miles of official trails, visitors going off trail have created another 30 miles of unofficial "social" trails. Complicating the planning process at Zion are concerns over how a visitation cap would impact area businesses.
“I think people realize that there are crowding problems, and would like to see some solutions to that," Superintendent Jeff Bradybaugh told the Traveler in December. "But there’s a great amount of concern that that could have negative economic impacts on the tourism industry. And we certainly are taking that into account and have those concerns as well."
As with their counterparts at Zion, officials at Arches have been trying to figure out how to manage visitors and protect park resources and values for some time. Back in November 2017 they released a draft plan that proposed reservations during peak visitation months. Such a plan is needed, they say, to address vehicle traffic and parking congestion problems that affect visitor access, visitor enjoyment, and resource conditions.
Visitation to Arches National Park doubled in the past 11 years, reaching approximately 1.6 million visitors in 2016. During high-visitation season, March through October, visitors routinely wait in long lines to enter the park and then must search for empty parking spaces at all popular sites. Long lines to enter the park cause congestion at the intersection of U.S. 191 and the park entrance road, which can be a serious traffic hazard.
The reservation proposal is viewed as a way to give visitors certainty of entry, reduce or eliminate long entrance lines, spread visitation more evenly across the day, and improve the visitor experience by ensuring available parking space.
But Paterson pointed to some uncertainties in reaching his conclusions over the economic fallout such a plan would create.
"(R)epresentatives from the International Inbound Travel Association Board have suggested that regardless of whether a system is implemented next year or not, there will likely be a reduction in foreign bus tours booked due to concerns about the system," the economist said in a report sent to the park last summer.
The report was just publicly identified by park officials last month when they announced plans for a public meeting this summer about the progress being made on the management plan. Paterson is expected to be at the meeting.
The economist acknowledged that his work so far could not predict the long-term impact to the area's economy. He predicated his estimate based on other national parks that used various approaches to deal with congestion.
"While they are all qualitatively different circumstances ... they may be similar in an economic sense in that they created uncertainty that in turn affected visitation," he wrote. "Based on these analyses, relevant literature, and professional judgment, it is my opinion that visitation to Arches may be reduced by 5 to 10 percent of what it otherwise would be during the first year that a system is implemented. ... Relying on (National Park Service) estimates of Arches visitor spending, this could result in a reduction in spending of $11 to $22 million relative to what otherwise would be predicted in that first year, which in turn could reduce overall output, employment, wages, and tax receipts through associated multipliers."
With that said, he added that after the first year of the reservation system commercial operators and individual park visitors would adapt to the system and "visitation would revert to what it would otherwise be under the system by year three."
But, reflecting the overall lack of rigorous economic analysis, was Paterson's comment that "(T)here are a number of important caveats and uncertainties associated with these estimates. Foremost is that they are based solely on existing data and information regarding imperfect analogies. In addition, they do not account for the potential to mitigate impacts through additional education and outreach regarding the proposed system."
Comments
Unfortunately not everyone can afford travel overseas. I would love to but our income as seniors prohibit that. But we can drive to NP within the states
I like your solution! It would allow those want hike to do so plus the ones who just want picture to just take I e ir what ever.
Most of the foreigners my wife and I encountered have been enthuastic and friendly... except for the busloads of Aisians. Two years ago at Yellowstone's Artist's Point five bus loads of Asians arrived at the same time. They pushed us, yelled at us and were extreamly rude. Needless to say it ruined our experience and we had to leave. After speaking to several park employees thay just stated that there is nothing they can do and there is no plan put in place to control these situations. In my opinion this isn't rocket science. Limit the umber of busses permitted per day into the parks. My suggestion is one buss pe day.
Some thoughts.
* In 1968 I studied at Cambridge University in England. While there I traveled around England quite a lot. On many occasions I observed bad behaviors by "ugly" Americans.
* Banning foreign visitors is un-American. However, would the following suggestion help manage this situation? Ban the large tourist buses; allow 9 to 12 person vans only, each with a guide who would stay with the group and "baby sit" them. Expensive? Yes, but maybe travel has become too cheap. By the by, I also favor banning large (over 20-21 feet) RV's, fifth wheels, and trailers; people who have to bring their entire houses with them should have to leave them outside the parks.
* Reservation systems are coming to the busiest parks if attendance keeps rising. That's just the way it's going to have to be. The NPS cannot out build or out manage the rising numbers. I've been traveling for over 30 years. I loved just making up my itinerary as I went along, but that was then; this is now. I remember driving 494 through Eden Prairie and Bloomington (Minneapolis suburbs) in the middle of the afternoon with hardly any traffic. Not any more. Our world has become a crowded place and gets more crowded every day. This is the new reality. Get used to it!
* Our national parks do not exist for the benefit of local businesses. Local businesses exist to benefit off our national parks. Businesses come and go all the time (Geez, Donald Trump declared bankruptcy six times.). That's capitalism. There are no guarantees. Therefore, park administrators should manage parks for the enjoyment of the people and the preservation of the resources as the law directs and let the tourist industry rise or fall as it may. The law says nothing about managing parks for the benefit of the tourist industry.
Forwogn visitors pay entrance fees too. Moreover, theu oay 14 USD to get a travel permit (Esta) to get into the U.S. suppose what it would do to the attractiveness of, say, Venice or Barcelona or Amsterdam if those cities were to lock foreigners out on the spur of the moment. Hotels wpuld go bankrupt becauae of unpaid hotel room reservations. Travel agents woukd go buat. Same in Moab, Springdale etc.
They're called National Parks not International Parks, so let's focus on our interests as a National People not on national commerce, Most of us will never be able to afford a trip to a foreign counntry or do not want to leave our country anyway, Most working Americans can barely afford to visit their National Parks , so we don't need wealthy foreginers overcrowding the Parks and driving up the cost of local accomadations. Our overcrowded Parks don;t need foreigners, so please stay home, we don't need you or your money.
And yes there is at least one international park (Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park) as well as at least 20 UNESCO World Heritage sites managed by the National Park Service.
So what do we need to do under your rules? Start asking for ID for everyone in a party? Keep out US permanent residents? A US citizen can bring foreign guests or not? Start setting up ID checkpoints at parks where they currently don't have entrance stations (Great Smoky Mountains, Golden Gate NRA, etc)? Arrest anyone for trespassing if they manage to get in and aren't eligible? And who pays for this - especially at parks (the majority of NPS units) where there's no entrance fee? Will we need 24 hour manned entrance stations given that many allow visitors to enter after hours. Heck - when I visited Arches the entrance station was unmanned and one could pay for entrance via an automated kiosk. So will they need to scan a passport? Birth certificate? Maybe just a SSN card?
What about Death Valley? Legally there's a state highway going through and as long as one doesn't stop at an NPS area it's free to enter. What to do about those foreigners who just want to pass through? I guess no using Tioga Road as a shortcut when it's open? And I guess there are NPS managed roads such as the Blue Ridge Parkway and Baltimore-Washington Parkway. Plus they'll need to set up checkpoints that I'm sure the commuters will love.
So no exceptions? How about foreign dignitaries? I remember there was talk about Prince William visiting Yosemite. I guess that would be out of the question. And foreign visitors can no longer visit the Smithsonian museums since that means crossing through the National Mall.
How about making things simpler. It's pretty obvious that our crowded parks don't need you to add to their crowding.
The NPS already requiress ID when entering a pay area with a pass. Banning foreigners could be easily enforced like any permit or licensee. If you get stopped you better be legal or you get a ticket or arrested. No need for checkpoints. When they get caught, punish them and make an example out of them. There is no perfect enforcement system for any laws. I don't care about Prince William or foreign dignitaries visiting; who needs them making it harder for The People to visit their Parks?. I don't kowtow to royalty or foreign dignitaries and neither should our Parks. Banning foreingers is a simpler system than reservations. You are making it sound complicated with ridiculous objections. What's so obvious that our crowded parks don't need me? Is it because you don't like ny views?