While desert-thriving vegetation commonly is thought to love heat, too much heat and reduced precipitation can doom them. A new study into the likely impacts of climate change says higher temperatures will recast the native plants we find in places such as Saguaro National Park and Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument.
The study, contained in the recent issue of Global Change Biology, says such iconic Sonoran Desert plants as velvet mesquite and ocotillo will decline as temperatures grow hotter, while other cacti should flourish.
"By carefully examining long-term records of how vegetation has responded to variability in numerous climate-related parameters, such as temperature, mean rainfall and aridity, scientists have been able to find the key to predicting the future for complex ecosystems," remarked U.S. Geological Survey Director Marcia McNutt. "This type of study is an essential first step in gaining insight to the world our children will be inheriting."
This research was conducted by a team of scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and National Park Service. They took advantage of 100 years of plant monitoring results from Saguaro National Park, Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, the Desert Laboratory, and the Santa Rita Experimental Range near Tucson, Ariz. The analysis used in the study identified the plant species susceptible to climate change by determining past relationships between climate and vegetation across sites.
"There is evidence that climate change is happening at regional to global scales with long-term effects, but plant ecological research is generally conducted in a very small area over a short period of time," said Seth Munson, a USGS scientist and lead author of the study. "This work integrates the results from four of the longest-running vegetation monitoring sites in the world to provide a more complete picture of how the plant composition, structure and productivity of a desert ecosystem may change in the future."
The study identifies critical points along a climate gradient that cause a reduction in plant abundance.
For example, perennial grasses such as bush muhly and curly mesquite grass decreased when annual precipitation dipped below 15 inches -- this amount of water input may indicate a threshold that limits perennial grass performance in the Sonoran Desert.
A main goal of this study was to inform the management decisions of the Park Service and other land-management agencies in the Sonoran Desert. For example, the research shows that increases in aridity correspond to declines in white ratany, a shrub that provides food for the endangered desert tortoise, which is intensively being monitored by NPS, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Arizona Game and Fish.
"Understanding climate-vegetation dynamics is important to both short-term management decisions and long-term planning for projected climate change," said John Gross, an ecologist with the Park Service's Inventory and Monitoring Program. "A knowledge of vegetation dynamics is essential to conducting ecological vulnerability assessments and subsequent planning for climate adaptation in our parks," he added.
Comments
Lee-
It was sarcasm and referring to comments from the East Anglia e-mails. I know you would like to "hide those emails" but they are out there and real.
To Rick - you need to get outside your living room.
http://www.iceagenow.com/Growing_Glaciers.htm
BTW Rick - the real issue is not whether climate changes, few would disagree with that. The issue is man's influence on that change. And on that there is much debate with the true science (i.e not that with manipulated, manufactured or hiden data) falling on the side of minimal if any influence relative to natural causes.
Here. repeat after me: The Sun is a Variable Star. Climate change has been happening since the earth began. Take a look at the geologic record and try to claim otherwise. To declare that climate change is human caused is just another excuse for researchers to spend government funds and get their names in print.
Ec...
I'll get out today just to enjoy our new snowfall, but my sloth and dormancy has nothing to do with this question. When todays clouds clear, the glaciers will still be receding.
I do agree with you on the fact that much of the manipulated and manufactured and hidden data is on the part of the petroleum industry. A simple indication is to take a list of the elected officials most vociferously denying and minimizing human contributions and see how many are propped in place by [i.e., bought and paid for by] those same petroleum industries.
Thanks EC. Gotcha.
Also, though, the idea that the few East Anglia emails completely debunked the science of climate change has been pretty well laid to rest except among those who still choose to try to use them as justification of anti-environmental propaganda.
See this reference: http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/climate-change/4338343
Or this: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/20/climate-sceptics-hacke...
Anyone on either side of the debate can easily find plenty of "evidence" to support whatever notion they have. As for me, I'll go with the fact that a profound majority of responsible scientists in the world have come down on the side of believing that warming is a clear and present danger. You won't change my mind because I think I'm right.
And I know you won't change your mind, either.
I just hope that both of us will continue to read and evaluate the veracity of information out there -- while also evaluating the sources. I'll prefer not to obtain my info from the likes of Rupert Murdoch or the Koch Brothers, though.
vISIT: [color=#0000ff]http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html[/color]
Google Trends in Earth's Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, a greenhouse gas among others produced by
Earth's estimated Population of 7,000,000,000 Humans many of which are burning Fossil Fuels.
To those who Think Earth's Atmosphere without Humans is essentially the same as an Earth
with 7,000,000,000 Humans, these CO2 Data during the past 54 years (since 1958) are SUGGESTING
that the Null Hypothesis of No Difference is False. Therefore, Yes, Humans can adversely affect the
Chemistry of Earth's Atmosphere. And Earth's Ice has been receding/melting because of ACTUAL Warming,
Not GOP Anti-Science Wealthy Corporate Fossil Fuel Politics.
Monthly mean atmospheric carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii
The carbon dioxide data (red curve), measured as the mole fraction in dry air, on Mauna Loa constitute the longest record of direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere. They were started by C. David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in March of 1958 at a facility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [Keeling, 1976]. NOAA started its own CO2 measurements in May of 1974, and they have run in parallel with those made by Scripps since then [Thoning, 1989]. The black curve represents the seasonally corrected data.
Data are reported as a dry mole fraction defined as the number of molecules of carbon dioxide divided by the number of molecules of dry air multiplied by one million (ppm).
Rick - you claim the petroleum industry is manipulating, manufacturing or hiding data. Please show evidence of that. You have nothing like the clear evidence of the East Anglea emails that showed a deliberate effort to alter and hide data and surpress contrary opinions. The fact that they had to do that is evidence enough of the falacy of their arguments. If the real data were on their side, they would not have to do this.
"these CO2 Data during the past 54 years (since 1958) are SUGGESTING
that the Null Hypothesis of No Difference is False."
And the evidence has shown that CO2 gains have trailed - not led changing temperature patterns. Please learn the difference between correlation and causation. In addition, despite rising CO2 in the last decade, temperatures have have not risen proving the causitive hypothesis FALSE.
More Pseudo-Science Interpretation Nonsense: ?
"...despite rising CO2 in the last decade, temperatures have have not risen proving the causitive hypothesis FALSE'"
Earth to ecbuck: We just experienced the warmest decade and also now for last month, January, 2012:
Visit: http://co2now.org/Know-the-Changing-Climate/Temperature/